Washblog

This election is really starting to worry me.  After eight years of Bush and Cheney, you'd think it would be a cakewalk to put a Democrat in the White House, especially given Obama's appeal.

Instead it appears that things are moving in unpredictable ways and unless that youth vote actually comes out and votes, we're going to get four more years of the same, and worse.

Down ticket candidates will suffer as well.

On The Road To 2008: Countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America

by Daniel K on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 12:03:42 AM PST

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I agree with Arthur's comments. It is true that we should not stress out over the polls or even some primary results. The wind is at our backs and these indicaters are good enough that with high turnout this should be a good year all around.

Still in a big democratic year where some of our candidates see high cross over numbers, traditional R voters will be looking for those R (pref GOP candidates) to support. Candidates like Sam Reed, Dino Rossi, Dave Reichert, and Rob McKenna have all tried to play up the cross over appeal. Sam is the only one of the four who is not a poser. Dave has gone as far as anyone in terms of taking votes and stating positions which have won him some endorsements. Rob at least has been clear about his party affiliation and has a record.

This brings us to Rossi, who has done what he can to blur his true party affiliation and conservative core. We on the D side tend to play the game of politics straight up. We start out as candidates detailing where we are on issues and why. We look at the race in terms of issues and voters or voters and issues. The choice vote, the green vote, the business vote and so on. Rossi on the other hand looks at his candidacy as a salesman and this opens the scope of ones thinking. For instance, the D Gov's campaign would likely paint a pie chart made up of Base D, the gender driven vote and issues related votes.

Rossi would have the R vote and limited issues driven vote, but would add, candidate likability vote, family likability vote,self made rich guy vote, and regional votes like the anti Seattle vote. These demographics shrink when issues become more central or when a candidate is clearly defined on issues. In fact while as D's we focus on how many votes clear environmental policy will get our candidate, the R's sit back laughing as they calculate all of the voters we are sending back into the undecided column.

So, in a year with a proven as strong candidate like Rossi at the top of our state ticket, a candidate who runs more on likability and as little on issues and detail, who sells the sizzle and not the steak, why should we be very concerned?
The reason is that the traditional foe of Rossi's strategy has always been the print and TV media. But look at the hole created by recent departures. Peter Callahan, David Ammons, Ralph Thomas, David Postman, the sage reporter from Hoquiem, Robert Mak, and I am sure the list goes on. The vacume created by these departures takes time to fill and time is one factor that is on Rossi's side. I expect he will run circles around those in the media who step into new roles between now and the election. He will dodge, and smile, and just run out the clock. In short he may get elected by selling the sizzle and folks may wake up one morning with one very rancid steak.

by Particle Man on Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:11:25 AM PST

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