Washblog

So here goes.  Peak oil, really a fairly innocuous term, describes a singular geological point in time (may be reported as a month or year) at which a quantity of oil will be extracted from the planet that will never be matched or exceeded.  Never.  Ever.  In fact, after a projected "bumpy plateau" as oil producers frantically try to maximize oil flow by any means, the rate of extraction will begin a gradual (hopefully not precipitous) and irreversible decline.  Meanwhile, global demand will, in all probability, continue to rise.  One of the first symptoms of this situation will be rapidly rising and wildly fluctuating energy prices.  Sound familiar?  The Energy Watch Group of Germany places that point in time in the past rather than the future.  Not everyone agrees.  (By the way, a similar peak and decline scenario is projected for natural gas, coal and uranium.)

The peak oil topic also encompasses a host of issues that will be affected by the oil industry's inability to meet global demand for oil.  These include transportation, of course, but also agriculture, manufacturing and, to shorten the list, almost every aspect of our lives.  We are starting to see this as well.  (Food riots in numerous countries earlier this year are not unrelated.)

Here is a 12 minute video of Julian Darley and Richard Heinberg, two personal heroes of mine, explaining to policymakers the importance of a thoughtful and systematic response.  Or you can Google "peak oil" to learn more.  (Expect more than 4 million hits.)  You will find a wide range of viewpoints, from denial and mockery to fatalistic doom and gloomery; blind optimism to even blinder ignorance.  There are, however, some who are cautiously optimistic that we humans will figure out how not to be swept away, and will devise the right and best response.  At the end of this post, I will tell you about examples of the latter I have found.

One last thing before leaving this segment; peak oil is often described as a theory.  Richard Heinberg has correctly pointed out that peak oil is a theory in the same way that gravity is a theory, based on a rational examination of the available evidence.  By contrast, the theory that the global oil supply is infinite is based on, let's be charitable here, blind faith.

My little role in all this

Having heard enough mention of peak oil to pique my interest, I attended, on Nov. 5, 2004, a Western Washington Fellowship of Reconciliation Retreat devoted to the subject.  In less than 24 hours I learned more than I was able to absorb and fled the Retreat early lest my little brain explode.  Thereafter I avidly sought to learn as much as I could about the issue, reading everything that seemed remotely useful and a great deal that ultimately was not.

In January, 2005 I went to hear Michael Ruppert in Seattle (his message was not the one I wanted to hear) and in February I went to Bellingham to hear Julian Darley, whose message resonated well with me.  [Around this time some of my friends were urging me, for reasons I was completely unable to grasp, to run for Everett City Council, the significance of which you will see at the end of this paragraph.]  Julian spoke calmly and rationally about the dangers presented by peak oil, but also about some of the things we might be able to do to respond.  In addition, by way of putting his money where his mouth was, Julian had, along with his wife, Celine Rich and a few others, founded the Post Carbon Institute.  Julian spoke for two hours at what was to be a 45 minute presentation then yielded the floor to Celine to speak about the Foundation that was the Institute's main funding source.  In the course of her comments, and in fact just as I had run out of time and was heading for the door, she made a statement to the effect that the best way to bring about change was to run for elected office so as to become a person who makes policy.  That tipped the scales for me, and I decided then and there to run.

I lost, of course, but made a good showing.  When I lost again two years later, making a considerably poorer showing, I began to think I wasn't cut out for politics.

Along the way, though, I got to know (and be known by) a number of people who make policy.  These acquaintances would come in handy, as you will see shortly.  But I digress.

Two significant things took place in 2006.  First, I persuaded my friends in Democracy for Snohomish County to help me put on a Renewable Energy Symposium and Expo.  (Don't blame them for the stodgy name.  I insisted.)  The first citizen initiated event of its kind in Everett, it was a success.  We arranged for Julian Darley to be our keynote speaker and got Congress members Jay Inslee and Rick Larsen to take part, along with Everett Mayor, Ray Stephanson.  We subsequently handed the event off to Green Everett, and they continue to do a fine job with it.

The second significant thing in 2006 was my attendance at the Third Annual U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions in Yellow Springs, OH, hosted by The Community Solution (about whom more later.)  Among many fine presentations at this conference, Richard Heinberg's was, to me, the most compelling.  As a result of his lecture, I came home determined to advocate forcefully for a Citizen's Commission on Energy Vulnerability.  Over the course of the next year, I addressed the Everett City Council three times (the third time I changed the charge of the commission to "Energy and Climate Vulnerability") before they finally came straight out and said that, although they may consider it a serious issue, they were not interested in creating a citizen's commission to work on it.  (To their credit, they have taken several excellent steps over the past couple of years, but I am convinced a piece-meal approach is inadequate.)

Failing with the City Council, I decided to see if the leaders of the Snohomish County PUD Commission, the Snohomish County Council and the Everett City Council (David Aldrich, Dave Somers and Drew Nielsen respectively) would sit down with me to talk about the possibility of putting together an intergovernmental working group of some sort to study these dual vulnerabilities.  They agreed to meet with me, gave me a respectful hearing with some pretty good dialogue, but neither proposed, planned or took any action.

So, my current effort is to see if I can get one or more of the three entities represented above to help me bring Richard Heinberg to Everett to chat with as many policy-makers as may be gathered for the purpose.  I'll let you know how that turns out.

It is worth mentioning that my proposal to create a working group on these issues is not without precedent.  Kinsale, Ireland was the first, developing its "Descent Plan" under the leadership of Rob Hopkins (about whom more later) in 2005.  Sebastapol, CA and Portland, OR are others.  Portland published its plan in March, 2007.  As recently as this spring two communities in Washington took action as well.  Bellingham and Whatcom County unanimously passed resolutions to create a joint task force on energy resource scarcity while Spokane is being credited with being the first city in the world to create a task force to tackle climate change and energy vulnerability together.

Where to look for what to do?

This is the good part.  Some people are actually busy figuring out what to do.  We should all join them.

At the top of my list is the above-mentioned Post Carbon Institute.  Through its five Initiatives (Global Public Media, Relocalization Network, Post Carbon Cities, Oil Depletion Protocol and Energy Farms) PCI is actively seeking and aggressively advocating for a well-reasoned response to the dramatically changing energy and climate situations.  Julian Darley is the Founder and Director of the institute, while Richard Heinberg is a Senior Fellow.  Both are, in my opinion, at the forefront on these issues.

Next on my list is The Community Solution located in Yellow Springs, OH.  This group will host its Fifth Annual U.S. Conference on Peak Oil and Community Solutions this year.  You should go if you can.  The leadership of this fine organization also produced "The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil," an excellent DVD worth owning and viewing repeatedly.

Third with a bullet on my list is the most recent group to come to my attention.  Lead by Rob Hopkins (see Kinsale above), the Transition Movement appears to be sweeping Great Britain with a localization approach that is actually exciting and enjoyable.  (I am only just learning about this movement, so more later.)  Rob Hopkins, the founder of the Transition movement, wrote a book entitled The Transition Handbook: From oil dependency to local resilience which I have just begun to read.  Pretty good, so far.

I'm certain there are other organizations, large and small, working on these issues, and I look forward to learning about them.  I am equally certain there are untold numbers of activists working independently or in small groups who are doing exciting and important work.  I look forward to learning about them as well.

Know this, though.  By whatever means necessary, through the Post Carbon Institute, The Community Solution, the Transition Movement and all the rest of us doing all we can do, we must devise a way to deal with declining cheap energy supplies without exacerbating the imminent climate change predicament we find ourselves in.

I hope this post will stimulate some dialogue, but by way of disclaimer, I am not a quick writer and don't spend a great deal of time on blogs, so be patient with me.